State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (245)
Measure Name
Percent of enrollment projections that are accurate.
Measure Last Modified
08-30-2024 03:07 p.m.
Measure Last Published
08-29-2024 02:16 p.m.
Status
Active
Data Source and Calculation
In consultation with SCHEV, each public Institution of higher education estimates its projected total enrollment in each of the next six years. Each institution also reports to SCHEV annually its actual student-enrollment (unit record) data. This measure is calculated as the total number of accurate enrollment projections divided by the total number of projections received for a given year, with 'accurate' defined as an institution's enrollment total being within five percentage points (above or below) of its projection.
Enterprise Priorities and Strategies
Initiative
Priority
Strategy
Workforce
Credentialing
Establish annual goals and identify ways to increase statewide credentials that align with employer current and future needs.
Associated Service Areas
Service Area Code
Service Area Name
11104
Higher Education Coordination and Review
Targets and Baselines
Name
Date
Result
Note
Baseline
12-01-2016
94.0
Short Target 2025
06-30-2025
95.0
Long Target 2027
06-30-2027
95.0
Results
Year
Result
Note
2010
95.00
The 95.0 percent figure reported for 2010 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2008 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2009 semester.
2011
99.70
The 99.7 percent figure reported for 2011 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2009 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2010 semester.
2012
99.66
The 99.66 percent figure reported for 2012 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2010 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2011 semester.
2013
97.00
The 97.0 percent figure reported for 2013 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2011 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2012 semester.
2014
99.70
The 99.7 percent figure reported for 2014 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2012 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2013 semester.
2015
100.00
The 100 percent figure reported for 2015 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2013 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2014 semester.
2016
94.00
The 94.0 percent figure reported for 2016 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2014 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2015 semester. Although the result is slightly below the target, this value reflects enrollment totals that were both more than five percent below an institution's projection as well as more than five percent above an institution's projection. While the latter outcome is a positive result in terms of the number of students pursuing higher education, it presents challenges for state policymakers and planners, which is why this measure is constructed this way.
2017
97.00
The percent figure reported for 2017 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2015 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2016 semester.
2018
The percent figure reported for 2018 represents the accuracy of the agency's 2016 projections against the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2017 semester.
2019
This result will be reported in Fall 2019 when all institutions have submitted, and SCHEV staff have verified, the actual enrollment numbers for the fall 2018 semester.
2020
2021
2022
This result will be reported in Fall 2022 when all institutions have submitted, and SCHEV staff have verified, the actual enrollment numbers for the Fall 2021 semester.
2023
2024
This result will be reported in Fall 2024 when all institutions have submitted, and SCHEV staff have verified, the actual enrollment numbers for the Fall 2023 semester.