|
Measure Last Modified
09-03-2024 09:11 a.m.
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Measure Last Published
09-03-2024 03:17 p.m.
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Status
Active
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|
Data Source and Calculation
|
| Enterprise Priorities and Strategies |
| Initiative |
Priority |
Strategy |
| Government and Citizens |
Fiscal Stewardship |
Manage public resources efficiently and effectively in challenging economic conditions. |
| Service Area Code |
Service Area Name |
| Name |
Date |
Result |
Note |
| Baseline |
|
5.46 |
5 year average (+) |
| Short Target 2025 |
|
2.0 |
+ or - |
| Long Target 2027 |
|
2.0 |
+ or - |
| Year |
Result |
Note |
| 2000 |
0.1 |
|
| 2001 |
0.7 |
|
| 2002 |
-2.2 |
|
| 2003 |
0.6 |
|
| 2004 |
2.8 |
|
| 2005 |
4.1 |
|
| 2006 |
1.0 |
|
| 2007 |
-1.5 |
|
| 2008 |
0.1 |
|
| 2009 |
-2.0 |
|
| 2010 |
1.7 |
|
| 2011 |
2.2 |
Total general fund revenue collections exceeded the official forecast by $321.7 million (2.2 percent) in fiscal year 2011. TAX's target is actual revenue collections in a given fiscal year within + or - 2 percentage points of the forecast. For fiscal year 2011, actual revenues were 2.2 percent above the annual forecast. This was due primarily to better-than-expected collections in individual non-withholding and corporate income taxes, two of the most volatile revenue sources of general fund revenue. Withholding and sales tax collections, 85 percent of total revenues and the revenue sources most closely related to current economic activity in the Commonwealth, posted a combined forecast variance of 0.8 percent – similar to fiscal year 2010 0.5 percent variance. TAX continues to strive to lower its forecasting error and maintain a positive forecasting variance. For fiscal years 2006 through 2010, actual revenue collections were within 2 percentage points of the forecast, attaining the target -- fiscal year 2010 actual revenues were 1.7+ higher than the forecast; fiscal year 2009 actual revenues were 2.0+ lower than the forecast; fiscal year 2008 actual revenues were 0.1+ higher than the forecast; fiscal year 2007 actual revenues were 1.5+ below the forecast; and fiscal year 2006 revenues were 1.0+ above the forecast. |
| 2012 |
0.8 |
Total general fund revenue collections exceeded the official forecast by $123.1 million (0.8 percent) in fiscal year 2012. TAX's target is actual revenue collections in a given fiscal year within + or - 2 percentage points of the forecast. For fiscal year 2012, actual revenues were 0.8 percent above the annual forecast. This was due primarily to better-than-expected collections in corporate income and sales taxes, and, fewer than expect individual income tax refunds. Withholding and sales tax collections, 85 percent of total revenues and the revenue sources most closely related to current economic activity in the Commonwealth, posted a combined forecast variance of 0.7 percent – similar to fiscal year 2011 0.8 percent variance. TAX continues to strive to lower its forecasting error and maintain a positive forecasting variance. |
| 2013 |
1.6 |
|
| 2014 |
-2.6 |
|
| 2015 |
3.5 |
Forecast 4.7+, actual 8.1+, var $549.6 million or 3.2+ |
| 2016 |
-1.5 |
|
| 2017 |
0.7 |
|
| 2018 |
2.9 |
|
| 2019 |
3.8 |
The Chapter 854 revenue forecast was 3.2+, actual results were 7.1+ for a 3.8+ variance. However, the General Assembly did not book estimated Tax Cuts and Jobs Act related revenue on page 1 of the estimate due to the creation of the Taxpayer Relief Fund which would refund the revenues in the first quarter of FY20. Including those expected revenues, the revenue forecast was 5.5+ and given actual results of 7.1+, the forecast variance is 1.6+. |
| 2020 |
-1.1 |
|
| 2021 |
11.5 |
|
| 2022 |
7.2 |
|
| 2023 |
5.6 |
If actual FY23 general fund revenue collections are compared to the December 2022 revenue forecast, the variance was 5.6+. Amendments to the Appropriation Act during the 2023 session reverted the official revenue forecast to the June 2022 forecast. |
| 2024 |
4.1 |
|
| 2025 |
|
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|
| Measure ID |
16171509.001.001 |
| Measure Class |
Other Agency |
| Measure Type |
Outcome |
| Year Type |
State FY |
| Preferred Trend |
Stable |
| Frequency |
Annually |
| Statistical Unit |
Percentage |
|
Report Filter
Performance Budgeting System Reports
